stockoddstrader

The End

2007-10-31T08:56:00.000-07:00

My short term stock picks tracking is done here. You can continue to see stock picks created from MarketOddsPro posted at:

http://www.marketprobability.com/MPWebSite/Forum/forum.aspx

The tool creater, MarketOddsPro, has their in-house trader posting picks most days in their forum. It's a great way to see how well the system is performing. Check it out.

Week 7 update

2007-10-25T13:32:00.000-07:00

The seventh week of picks is done. Of course on the first day the market dropped over 350 points so I didn’t expect much. Overall picks were down 3.87%.

Here is the final tally:

CPF closed at 23.61 down 2.45%
WM closed at 27.30 down 11.14%
ODFL closed at 21.84 down 3.43%
HBHC closed at 36.74 down 0.29%
PRFT closed at 18.00 down 2.05%

I’ll run another set of five day trades next week.

Cumulative Scorecard (seven periods)

Closed up for the period: 15
Closed down for the period: 18
Broke even for the period: 2

Week 7 update

2007-10-23T13:59:00.000-07:00

Up day in the market and the negative returns from Friday's big drop are reversing. ODFL now up 3.14% and PRFT recovered from a large drop to be up 0.70%. Two days still to go on the picks.

Week 7 update

2007-10-22T15:46:00.001-07:00

Well the market was down over 350 points on Friday which never helps no matter how one determines the stocks to buy. But even so, the market recovered enough that the overall picks are down less than 2% as of today with three days to go.

ODFL is up 1.90%.

Week 7

2007-10-18T12:38:00.001-07:00

Here are this week's top five 5-day picks generated on marketprobability.com. The usual process: I run five day trades and see what happens; near close to close five days later. No stops, sells, limits, etc.

Here is this week’s set of five picks and the current price. I ran these about twenty minutes before market close.

CPF 24.19
WM 30.43
ODFL 22.59
HBHC 36.85
PRFT 18.37

This five day set will end close of market next Wednesday.

Week 6 update

2007-10-17T16:25:00.000-07:00

The sixth week of picks is done. Not a good week because I have no stops with these picks and a down market all week.

So with no stops, sells, or limits, the five picks averaged down 5.12%.

Here is the final tally:

CPF closed at 24.87 down 13.01%
PVTB closed at 27.90 down 7.81%
GB closed at 24.75 down 5.21%
IRBT closed at 17.83 down 1.40%
ENDP closed at 27.90 up 1.82%

I’ll run another set of five day later this week.

Cumulative Scorecard (six periods)

Closed up for the period: 15Closed down for the period: 13
Broke even for the period: 2
Note: Of the thirteen stocks that did not have a gain or break even, twelve were in positive territory at some point during the time period.

Week 6

2007-10-10T12:42:00.001-07:00

Here are this week's top five 5-day picks generated on marketprobability.com. The usual process: I run five day trades and see what happens; near close to close five days later. No stops, sells, limits, etc.

Here is this week’s set of five picks and the current price. I am running these 15 minutes before market close.

CPF 28.22
PVTB 30.08
GB 26.04
IRBT 18.08
ENDP 27.40

This five day set will end close of market next Wednesday.

More picks next week

2007-10-05T12:39:00.000-07:00

No picks today as I am not crazy about running picks when the market is up so much. Till next week then.

Week 5 Results

2007-10-04T14:17:00.000-07:00

The fifth week of picks is done. Whew. This was about as mixed a week as one could get. CHRD skyrocketed, up 18.00%. But to counter that great pick was bad news out on IOC sending it down 27.59%. All this in five days.

So with no stops, sells, or limits, the five picks averaged down 0.89% which is tremendous considering the poor performance of IOC. Without IOC, we would have had a 5.78% gain. But of course that is hypothetical.

Other great picks were GB up 2.57% and PPL up 3.17%.

Here is the final tally:

IOC closed at 24.75 down 27.59%
HOFF closed at 15.90 down 0.62%
PPL closed at 48.38 up 3.17%
CHRD closed at 15.99 up 18.00%
GB closed at 27.06 up 2.57%

I’ll run another set of five day picks tomorrow.

Cumulative Scorecard (five periods)

Closed up for the period: 14
Closed down for the period: 9
Broke even for the period: 2
Note: Of the eleven stocks that did not have a gain or break even, all were in positive territory at some point during the time period.

Week 5 update

2007-10-03T14:23:00.000-07:00

OK, I have no control over a stock like IOC when it decides to drop like KFed's career post divorce. But it's going to happen periodically. So let's assume if you were trading it, you had a stop in there. I won't as I run these picks through the full five day trade time.

On the good side, CHRD keeps going up and is now up 14.98%. All four other stocks besides IOC are either up or at breakeven.

Week 5 update

2007-10-02T14:05:00.000-07:00

CHRD now up 10.11% so far. GB up 3.67%. Overall picks up 1.56%. Two days to go.

Week 5 update

2007-10-01T14:07:00.001-07:00

CHRD up 4.05% so far. GB up 3.03. HOFF still up. Overall picks up 1.44%. Three days to go.

Week 5 update

2007-09-28T13:43:00.000-07:00

HOFF up 3.12% and CHRD up 2.28% on first day. Four more days to go.

Week 5

2007-09-27T12:45:00.000-07:00

Here are this week's top five 5-day picks generated on marketprobability.com. The usual process: I run five day trades and see what happens; near close to close five days later. No stops, sells, limits, etc.

Here is this week’s set of five picks and the current price. I am running these 15 minutes before market close.

IOC 31.58
HOFF 16.00
PPL 46.89
CHRD 13.55
GB 26.38

This five day set will end close of market next Thursday.

Week 4 Results

2007-09-26T14:01:00.001-07:00

The fourth test is done and a very good though mixed week this time. Again, no stops, sells, or limits. The five picks averaged -0.12% gain in this market.

CRNT closed up 10.8% and PPC closed up 2.763% over the five day trade period.

Here is the final tally:

CRNT closed at 17.85 up 10.8%
PNR closed at 32.63 down 0.73%
SIVB closed at 47.08 up 0.08%
PPC closed at 35.25 up 2.76%
WNR closed at 41.77 down 13.52%

Here is where stops would have helped as most traders would have closed WNR much earlier which would have given a very positive week. But I am running these from near close to close for data.

I’ll run another set of five day picks tomorrow.

Cumulative Scorecard (four periods)

Closed up for the period: 11
Closed down for the period: 7
Broke even for the period: 2
Note: Of the nine stocks that did not have a gain or break even, all were in positive territory at some point during the time period.

Week 4 update

2007-09-25T14:24:00.000-07:00

CRNT is up 8.93%. PPC up 2.01%.

One more day in the set.

Week 4

2007-09-19T15:59:00.000-07:00

Here are this week's top five 5-day picks generated on marketprobability.com. I run five day trades and see what happens. The only rules that I consider are close to close prices. No stops, sells, limits, etc.

Here is this week’s set of five picks and the current price. I am running these 15 minutes before market close.

CRNT at 16.11
PNR at 32.87
SIVB at 47.04
PPC at 34.30
WNR at 47.42

Let’s see how these do over the next five days ending next Wednesday.

New Version Week 3 Results

2007-09-17T14:21:00.001-07:00

The third test of the new system is done and a mixed week this time in another volatile market. Again, no stops, sells, or limits. The five picks averaged 0.78% gain in this market. Two closed up for the week, two down, one breakeven.

There were two very good individual picks. APOG closed up 4.53% and ODFL closed up 2.85% over the five day trade period.

Here is the final tally:

APOG closed at 22.61 up 4.53%
STNR closed at 40.20 down 0.49%
EMKR closed at 7.62 down 2.88%
ODFL closed at 27.01 up 2.85%
ABFS closed at 33.33 down 0.09%

I’ll run another set of five day picks tomorrow.

Cumulative Scorecard (two periods)

Closed up for the period: 8
Closed down for the period: 5
Broke even for the period: 2
Note: Of the seven stocks that did not have a gain or break even, all were in positive territory at some point during the time period.

Week 3 update

2007-09-11T14:21:00.001-07:00

Great first day. Overall picks up 1.77% today.

Highlights:

APOG up 4.25%
STNR up 2.30%

Four more days to go.

Week 3

2007-09-10T12:43:00.000-07:00

Here are this week's top five 5-day picks generated on marketprobability.com. I run five day trades and see what happens. The only rules are that I consider are close to close prices. No stops, sells, limits, etc.

Here is this weeks set of five picks and the current price. I am running these 15 minutes before market close.

APOG at 21.63
STNR at 40.40
EMKR at 7.84
ODFL at 26.26
ABFS at 33.36

Let’s see how these do over the next five days ending Friday.

New Version Week 2 Results

2007-09-06T15:14:00.001-07:00

The second test of the new system is done and another really good week in this very volatile market. Again, no stops, sells, or limits. The five picks averaged 3.98% gain in this market. Four closed up for the week, one down.

There were two strong individual picks. PDLI closed up 8.27% and LPL closed up 6.21%. Two others closed up 2.59% and 3.50% over the five day trade period.

Here is the final tally:

PDLI closed at 20.28 up 8.27%
CMZ closed at 9.49 up 2.59%
PRST closed at 6.50 up 3.50%
LPL closed at 22.21 up 6.21%
WTW closed at 51.36 down 0.66%

I’ll run another set of five day picks tomorrow.

Cumulative Scorecard (two periods)

Closed up for the period: 6
Closed down for the period: 3
Broke even for the period: 1
Note: Of the four stocks that did not have a gain or break even, all were in positive territory at some point during the time period.

Day 3 update

2007-09-04T16:29:00.001-07:00

PDLI up 7.74% so far.

Overall picks up 2.36% in three days.

Day 2 update

2007-08-31T13:45:00.000-07:00

PDLI up 4.16% so far.

Overall picks up 1.12% in two days.

New Version Week 2

2007-08-29T12:50:00.000-07:00

Here are this week's top five 5-day picks generated on marketoddspro. Like before, I am going to run five day trades and see what happens. The only rules are that I am going to consider are close to close prices. No stops, sells, limits, etc.

Here is this weeks set of five picks and the current price. I am running these 15 minutes before market close.

PDLI – 18.73
CMZ – 9.25
PRST – 6.28
LPL – 20.91
WTW – 51.70

Let’s see how these do over the next five days ending next Thursday.

New Version Week 1 Results

2007-08-28T14:24:00.000-07:00

The first test of the new system is done and what a week. The market was down almost 3% these last two days. Overall, the first week results were excellent. With no stops, sells, limits, the five picks averaged 1.52% gain in this market. Two closed up for the week, two down, and one break even.

There was some strong individual picks if one took advantage of them. TBSI was up over 9% on Wednesday. NRGY was up almost 8% by yesterday and still closed up over 6% for the week. FFIB was up over 8% and even AAPL was up over 6% and some point.

The final tally:

FFIV break even at 34.61
DKS up 3.09% at 62.30
TBSI down 1.57% at 34.99
NRGY up 6.68% at 32.41
AAPL down .56% at 126.86

I’ll run another set of five day picks tomorrow.

Cumulative Scorecard (one period)

Closed up for the period: 2
Closed down for the period: 2
Broke even for the period: 1
Note: Of the three stocks that did not have a gain or break even, all were in positive territory at some point during the time period.

Technorati

2007-08-27T12:39:00.001-07:00

Technorati Profile

Day 3 – up an average of 6.46%

2007-08-24T14:01:00.000-07:00

Can’t ask for a better first week of testing so far. Day three of the five day trades and all five picks are up an average of 6.46% versus the market up 2.19%.

Here is a summary:

FFIV – up 8.26%
DKS – up 3.84%
TBSI – up 6.19%
NRGY – up 7.97%
AAPL – up 6.06%

Two more days to go.

Day 2

2007-08-23T15:07:00.000-07:00

NRGY up 4.14% today.

Overall picks up 3.99% in two days. Market up .996 in two days.

Day 1 – up an average of 4.14%

2007-08-22T14:53:00.000-07:00

Well how do you respond to a day like today? “It works”? “Wow”? Doesn’t matter. It was a fine first day for this new system of generating picks based on the highest probabilities. Day one of the five day trades and all five picks are up an average of 4.14% versus the market up 1.17%.

Here is a summary:

FFIV – up 3.90%
DKS – up 1.46%
TBSI – up 9.71%
NRGY – up 1.78%
AAPL – up 3.87%

Let’s see what happened over the next four days.

New Version Week 1

2007-08-21T17:26:00.000-07:00

I’m back. A lot has happened in the past few weeks. The system I have been using, MarketOddsPro from marketprobability.com, was reformatted to provide the top probability picks. There is now no need to play with the various settings as the system now looks at all scenarios and looks for the best picks based on the desired trade time. Sounds good to me as it saves me a lot of time. I am going to run five day trades like before and see what happens. The only rules are that I am going to consider are close to close prices.

Here is the first set of five picks and today’s closing price:

FFIV – 34.62
DKS – 60.43
TBSI – 35.54
NRGY – 30.38
AAPL – 127.57